@ThePonyTheorist

I got a count of 99 viable scrolls. This discussion can be continued there.

@Incursor
I just used paint and counted every scroll, every coil from the side of a scroll that didn’t seem like it correlated with any other scroll etc. As far as the CMC non-aging: They only have so many puppets. I like to think that what we see in the show isn’t always entirely accurate to the universe if you were to jump down into the world (they wouldn’t be speaking english for one thing; that’s effectively confirmed if you have done enough analysis, and from sheer logic), so i’m willing to accept a little flexibility in terms of character looks. The CMC could easily be 14, 15 etc at show end. Part of it depends on the ages you prescribe to the different sized ponies; if we consider Sandbar etc to be young adults, it still makes some level of sense. Albeit at this point having the CMC fully age up into adults in a season or two would be jarring.

@ThePonyTheorist
I’m working on editing the screencap to show a precise count of the scroll, seeing if it can realistically be incorporated into this or a revised timeline (if you have how you got your 83 estimate that would expedite things). I agree thematically it would make most sense if more time past then given how much more time passed afterward.

But the CMC are definitely older than 5 at the start of the series, and not enough time has passed for them to get the older foal/teen bodies we’ve seen. Even my smallest time estimates are already pushing that and conflicting with official word on their ages >>2165346 (they did want to age them up though >>2155426).

If the only way to make the timeline work is to assume either the scroll pile or CMC non-aging are inaccurate, I’ll go with the scroll pile as it seems like something they’d put less thought into and the latter means there is no real timeline invalidating this entire exercise. Any reason to do otherwise?

I have speculated that pony time measurement are shorter than their real life equivalents, hence so much time passing without them aging. But that will require a whole separate analysis.

@Incursor
If you count every scroll with even partial visibility, you get 83. Feasibly it’ll be significantly higher, maybe into the 110s, 120s - you could probably math it out with stacking density of randomly arranged cylinders, using Twilight’s height as a ruler and compensating for parallax…

This means ~2 years to S2 anyway, and then another to start S4… Leaving us with 3 years passed at S4 start.

Interestingly, your list highlights Spike’s first ponyville birthday in S2, which seems like a MASSIVE continuity break - as you say, we could take this as it being out of order… UNLESS, Twilight and Spike were sent away from Ponyville at times in the interim between S1 & S2 due to events we have not seen…

I generally dislike saying the episodes are out of order on principal, but they could be.

@ThePonyTheorist
I counted about 30 visible scroll seal in the picture, given the piles size I’d estimate about 60 weeks, maybe 90. 60 would be within my postulation of the 2 year gap between the S1 and S4 premiers. It would make sense S1 and S2 are a year as we know S2 and S5 were within 1.

If higher number of weeks it can be rationalized as being out of order taking place after some of S2.

Great work! I’ve always wanted to see someone try this.
I would like to suggest a correction, however.
https://derpicdn.net/img/view/2019/4/12/2009663.png

This was at the start of season 2, back when Celestia was demanding one report from Twilight every week. That’s the first image I could find of the scene on derpi, so don’t take it as final, you’ll have to look at the episode to get a perfect take - but there should probably be a few years between S1 and S2.

@Incursor  
Different ages, different grades of studies. And lack of interest from both to get to know new ponies?
 
Also, 2nd part about them being Celestia’s prodigees at same time was meant to be a “what-if” scenario. I forgot to make that clear. Like the possible scenario had Sunset not left years before Twilight became Celestia’s student.

@sapphire  
If they were Celestia’s pupils at the same time, How did Twilight not know about Sunset?

Very late but… Twilight and Sunset age could be explained by that we are only assuming that Twilight became her personal prodigee immediately. But maybe it was more like stipend kind of thing.
 
Maybe she didn’t become one until several years later, after finishing the “elementary school” grade first. So then Celestia would have had 2 prodigees, Senior and Junior who could have worked together like she and Luna once did under Starswirl.
 
So the 2 could then together work in future against Nightmare Moon and then later successors for her and Luna.  
Sunset has Sun cutiemark while Twilight’s mark is Star. Day and Night related respectively

@Trinh23  
Between Friendship Games and Mirror Magic. They weren’t included as they weren’t important in determining the timeline and were all in spring-summer without enough to determine precise placement (Rainbow Rocks had overlap with Equestria).

HEY!!! Where’s MLP EG Legend Of Everfree, Dance Magic & Movie Magic?

Interesting