The Stare, quantified. According to the ToE rulebook, your average pony has d6 in Mind, which means a pony character would be throwing a d6 vs. Fluttershy’s d20 in her talent with “The Stare”. “Amazing success” means getting double your opponent’s roll, which for a d20 vs. d6 match is pretty easy.
Basically, when push comes to shove, Fluttershy has no problem petrifying your average pony, and most of the time can do “jedi mind tricks” on them. “The Stare” is a truly terrifying power at her level.
Supposedly.
Critters in Equestria probably only have a d4 in Mind (not a “dumb animal”, but not as bright as a pony), or maybe a d4 with a penalty (throw two d4s, pick the lowest number). Fluttershy has almost guaranteed success using The Stare against that. I was just impressed that her power extends to influencing regular ponies, even relatively bright ones.
84 times it will, 36 times it won’t.
70% amazing success rate
overall win rate would be:
82.5% win, 5% draw, 12.5% lose