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MisterC

I think the real culprit was Lightning Dust, since she would probably want revenge on Rainbow Dash getting her kicked out of the academy. This would also make sense, because the Wonderbolts are in this episode, and she might want revenge on THEM as well.
My prediction is that Lightning Dust does something to the Wonderbolts and makes it look like Rainbow Dash did it.
 
Alternatively, what if that deleted ending to Wonderbolts Academy is canon? Dusty was only demoted but is still viable for being a member of the team. From the clip in that promo where Dashie yells “This is the best thing ever,” it all but confirms she’s going to have a chance to fly with them as a member of the Reserves - what if Dusty frames her to sabotage that chance and get picked instead. Either way could give her motivation for being the culprit if she returns in the episode.
RainbowDashie22

I think the real culprit was Lightning Dust, since she would probably want revenge on Rainbow Dash getting her kicked out of the academy. This would also make sense, because the Wonderbolts are in this episode, and she might want revenge on THEM as well.
 
My prediction is that Lightning Dust does something to the Wonderbolts and makes it look like Rainbow Dash did it.
Background Pony #588A
@MisterC  
Well Spitfire had no problem throwing Soarin under the bus as soon as she had the opportunity to replace him with a better flyer. She probably wouldn’t frame Dash intentionally, but if she does something shady (for the team, of course) and Dash accidentally ends up as the prime suspect because she’s at the wrong place at the wrong time… I’m not sure if the Spitfire from Rainbow Falls would lose much sleep over it.
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Pomegranates :P
I’ll bet the “culprit” would probably be a misunderstool individual, basically another Troubleshoes Clyde. Either that, or a silly f-up.
 
But if we do get a criminal, then awesome.
MisterC

@Anon-a-Miss  
I hope not either. Besides, aside from when she’s “in-character” as a drill sergeant Spitfire’s shown nothing but respect for Dashie as a flier and potential recruit as well as for her morals, so why would she suddenly want to do something to screw her over so horribly? That’d be some pretty bad derailment.
 
It’s probably too much to hope for, but if this from “Investigates” I hope it shows Spitfire trying to aid Rarity in clearing Dashie’s name, or at least one of the bolts. Plus, maybe they could reference Rarity knocking her and Soarin out back in Season 1.
Background Pony #1B72
@Background Pony #5E5E
 
Most likely. My best guesses.
 
  1. Lightning Dust. She frames RD so her chances of getting into the wonderbolts are gone.
     
  2. Starlight Glimmer. She wants to steal something that will be important in the finale. Knowing RD is in canterlot, she frames her. Rarity just proves RD is innocent but they don’t know the real culprit is.
     
  3. It was just a misunderstanding and there wasn’t any crime.
whiteoak019

so apparently this episode involves Rainbow being framed for a crime and Rarity has to clear her name. It’s obvious who’s framing her.
Background Pony #1936
@Hateot  
There’s a split second of Soarin’, Fleetfoot, and Spitfire flying. My theory is its a sequel to Sonic Rainboom when RD saved Rarity, but it seems to be using Sweet & Elite’s backdrop (the racetrack). Gonna be interesting to expand on the most opposite of characters.
Hateot

Dash & Rarity team up episode, huh? Can’t quite remember, but isn’t that the first time for something like this since S1?