I think this right here is what will be Harris and Dems’ saving grace, is a gap in enthusiasm. Yes, polling shows it’s close, but that leaves it up to turnout. If Trump’s crowds are shrinking and his fans are leaving his rallies disappointed, MAGA voters are deflated. And if they stay home from the polls even by a couple points, Donald is cooked.
EDIT: Plugged another scenario into the swingometer. Made Black and Latino voters 3 points more Democratic and increased turnout by three points each, reduced Trump’s share of college white voters by 4 points and increased Harris’s by 2 points, then finally reduced non-college white turnout by two points while keeping vote shares the same.
Results: Harris secures all of Biden’s 2020 states, flips North Carolina by single digits, flips TX and FL by one point each. Trump wins Iowa by mid single digits, Ohio by low single digits, and South Carolina and Mississippi by mid and high single digits, respectively.