@Background Pony #4DDA  
The fact that anti-capitalists do anti-capitalist conference inside a capitalist-built conference hall makes this even more amusing XD

@AaronMk  

 

@Background Pony #1C57
 
To be honest I gave up on the front runners so I’ll cast in with a third party to be uncounted for either. More effort needs to be devoted to other sectors of the political field to do actual shit. Join a union, be warm blood on strikes. Protest. Stop being passive and doing politics for Twitter points.
 
To a degree voting can do a thing but ultimately the president can only operate within a narrow field. If you want anything real from the office, the arena needs to be changed.

@AaronMk  
I’d also like to add to this that after Trump announced the most stupidest idea that should’ve guaranteed that no one would’ve vote for him, everyone else started to celebrate way too early on this and even worse, tried WAY too hard to show why he would be the (proven) worse president to vote for and completely went to neglect Clinton and her ideas to improve on America’s problems.
 
I fear if we did the same thing before, plus demonizing anyone who “might’ve voted for him,” and ignore Joe Biden, Trump will win again. Which is something we need to avoid, but not with the “at all costs” mentality that people seem to think we have.

@Moonatik
 
I just wanted to plug it in somewhere really.
 
But having been a veteran of marketing classes in _ a c a d e m i a _ I can only say what they told me: they’re only up to date so long as their methodology is valid. So who’s to say in five years there’s not some trend that skews the polls.
 
Like, I dunno: a militant labour movement that as principle abstains from elections and takes out a chunk of the voter base?
 
As a related thing, I think this was the case in America in 2016 but not out of some organized political absentia. I remember in the lead up to the election a lot of stories and interviews with people who expressed support of Clinton and the polls were strong and there was high confidence. But with all that, the same people being interviewed showing strong support for Clinton were themselves so confident they expressed they saw no need to going to vote. While this is anecdotal and I possess no hard data on this, I’ll hazard that the disconnect between polling and election in this case did not factor for absentia through even over-confidence. Let alone actual politically minded absentia that would be fun to see. But America also has a strong culture of just not turning up to vote anyways.

@belmontzar  

 
For one, Martin Luther King was a socialist, so this doesn’t really make much sense. What is even meant by “Marxism” here?
 
Additionally, everybody is experiencing the pandemic and the economic recession, when only a few parts of a few cities are really being significantly damaged by the riots. You can’t wish away 156,000 COVID deaths, colossal unemployment, and an unprecedented eviction crisis by screaming “antifa!!!”. That only appeals to Trump’s base, which is an increasingly smaller number of people who were going to vote for him anyway.
 
@AaronMk  
As I previously mentioned, after getting it wrong in 2015 and 2017, British polling agencies refined their methodology to prevent the same sort of thing from happening, and by 2019 they seem to have gotten it figured out.

@Moonatik  

 
I don’t know where to include this in the conversation but when it comes to polling there’s a lot of outside factors that plug into them usually that have to be considered, and not just that a poll was done showing X. The methodology of the poll can have a large impact including how they conducted the poll. Telephone banking can often skew a poll towards an older generation for instance where as doing a poll online can skew it younger, and either generation can have their own distinct politics that weigh into it. You could random sample on the street directly, but this becomes a question of where you do that random sampling to account for regional biases. This does not include aforementioned biasing in the phrasing of questions or even the possible interpretation of answers not on a strict sliding scale for instance.
 
Optimally, a poll would have to be randomized using a large set of outreach methodologies to compensate for the diversity of groups who may be represented in the polling and geographic location. A random sampling in a large city does not represent the suburbs or even the countryside. The later even, sampling in cities, is even an issue in sociological and behavioral research leaving rise to the descriptor of WEIRD, Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic: or college or university populations.

@belmontzar  
Then it’s a question of stopping him and calling him what he is. A fascist.

@Nido3  

 
Im not saying hes in the right at all. The dude is a messed up guy, im just pointing out what hes using or seems to be ready to be using.

@belmontzar  
Look up the 14 characteristics of fascism then look at his call to stall the elections and the state of the USPS.

@Background Pony #148D  

 
He actually has a rather solid strategy going right now election wise by siding so much with Police. Many of the people shouting Black Lived Matter are out there causing problems and being a hazard. So Trump is using all the rioting and Violence to his advantage, pointing out all the causes Democrats support, and the rioting caused by thise Causes. He is going for a ‘Neighborhood safety’ approach that might be more effective than people expect. Particularly since people ar3 just shouting the cause to try and get away with things recently.  
“Do you want your buisness broken into or burned down by radicals or rioters? Keep your home and jobs safe by supporting the police and me.” Kinda deal.  
I saw this funny story about a bunch of guys going into a restaurant shouting “Black Livee Matter!” And… most of the patrons in the place… were Black.  
Yes the Black Lives Matter activists were pushed out… by Black guys who just wanted to eat in peace.  
“This is not the way of Martin Luthor… no this is Marxism. All you do is hurt everyone when all we want is a fair shake and honest treatment.”

Violence and loudness always attracts the most attention.  
[Here is a real life example] You can have a room of about a thousand people and have one guy on your side get so Angry they pick up a chair.  
In reality a bunch of people got up and basically calmed the guy down, talked him calm and NO ONE was hurt or injured at all. The even was even recorded and live streamed so we even have Physical evidence that everything calmed down.
 
Yet according to the Media this guy was a raging psychopath who sent multiple people to the hospital and caused a large amount of property damage.
 
It is true people had to go to the hospital, but we were all stuck in a room for over ten hours without many breaks because it was a voting thing. The people who went to the hospital were Elderly people who stayed so long without food or medication. That they NEEDED to be given medical help.

@Moonatik  
They are also heavily biased in the phrasing of the questions, target only citys by and large, and yes can lead to consequences. If a poll shows an area is red, there have been cases of rioters targeting that area. See Sanfrancisco

@YourPalWaver  
Corbyn was the most disliked opposition leader… ever, actually. It’s honestly amazing that so many people, myself included, didn’t see the defeat coming from a mile away.

@Moonatik
 
The way I remember people’s jaws where on the floor and I mistaken? I mean there where areas that flipped Tory hat has hasn’t voted that way in (over a hundred?) years. But I guess thats what happens when people call anyone who have reservations on Corbyn “thick as shit.” They dont speak up.

Yeah Trump needs a miracle at this point (mind you that actually could happen somehow since apparently this year insanity is the norm) but outside of that he’s toast. Biden just isn’t as hated by your average, heh, ‘Joe’ as Clinton was.

@Dsiak  
…Polls are anonymous. Nobody lives under the threat of being “cancelled” because of how they answer a poll. Unless the claim is that “shyness” in an anonymous poll can eliminate an ever growing 8 point difference (which, let’s be honest, it can’t), this is a totally moot point. These are literally the exact same coping mechanisms, god damn.

@Moonatik  
 
Ah yes quite in fact, the UK election was interesting indeed, with the brexit on the line and all that. I was mildly invested since I have a friend ifood slaving hauling goods around that island, queen bless his bloody soul.  
However it would be fair to point out that shy voters did indeed elect the orange boi, as the opposition had something rather silly like 99,9% win chances.  
 
Now now I had the pleasure of coming across a very interesting article talking about shy voters. But alas my brain is far too stinky, so I had a beanie boi put it into perspective with current events, events such as the riot portrait in your lovely picture.  
I found it most fascinating indeed however I’m afraid I am yet to have a second opinion, would you honor me with the visions of the opposition gentle Sir?

@Dsiak  
Not gonna lie dude, but as a Britbonger I remember hearing about, no, having this mindset during the UK 2019 election.
 
Long story short, because the polls and the pundits in the 2017 election vastly overestimated the Conservative’s lead, when the 2019 election rolled around much of Labour’s supporters expected it to be the same story and came up with a multitude of excuses to explain their failings. “Oh there’s probably a shy Corbynite factor”, “Oh it’s only the fake news polls that have us behind”, “It’ll turn around by election day”, “They got it wrong in 2017 you know”. The problem with all this, though, is that the polls were correct. They predicted that Labour would get blown the heck out and that’s exactly what happened.
 
If anything, they overcorrected their polling methodology and predicted a smaller loss for Labour than what the result actually was. If you apply this to the US, then there’s a chance that Trump’s current standing in the polls is too high. On top of that, UK pollsters only had 2.5 years to correct their methodology, while US pollsters have had 4.
 
Not to mention, Biden currently has an 8 point lead, which is vastly higher than what Clinton could’ve dreamed of. This isn’t 2016.

@Armagedonus  
The USA elections affect the whole world, when the orange boii is not happy no one is.

@Loopers
 
 
@Armagedonus
 
 
Look guys I dont know who will win but I will warn you both equally. Hubris will be your downfall.