Viewing last 25 versions of comment by Cirrus Light on image #2295017

"[@Astrohippus23":](/images/2295017#comment_8861852
)  
Its death and serious case rate is way higher than the flu.

"
 
[@Ice Blaze":](/images/2295017#comment_8861905
)  
Unlike lightning, though, this has a little thing called "exponential growth", and its doubling time is ludicrously short, at around just 4 days or less. It's been in exponential growth since it started and the only thing that has slowed it down anywhere has been China going under strict lockdown.


 
It's as infectious as the common cold but ten to a hundred times as lethal, and the best part is it spreads for days of a patient not showing any symptoms, for many its symptoms can be mistaken for a common cold, and for some there are no symptoms at all, making it, unlike other past epidemics the media has hyped, a pandemic that is practically impossible to contain.


 
This flippant attitude is what caused this to be a serious pandemic. With >1% fatality rate, and spreading as virulantly as it does, it'll probably kill over a million in the US alone, possibly more as cases overwhelm medical infrastructure as they've done in every other country.




 

 
But to help you understand this, let's pretend you're #10,000. Just a number. And let you watch what an exponential growth looks like:


 
1,2,4,8,16,32
 
"Hah, it's not even a hundred, nevermind a thousand, pathetic!"
 
64,128,256,512
[==  
"B-but it's not-"==]
 
1024,2048,4096
[==  
"Well I'm still safe at-"==]
 
8192,16384,32768,65536,131072
 
"But muh flu"
 
262144,524288,1048576,2097152


 
I realized this might be serious when China built a huge hospital complex in under a week. I realized it was serious when it spread to many western countries. Since then I've been watching the cases and curve-fitting them to a simple exponential growth model and I've had over a 90% correlation and been highly successful at predicting the daily cases using this simple exponential model.


 
Also, the cases wouldn't be growing like this if it were only the reported numbers. Go figure it's hard to catch everyone who has it when it blends in with the common cold. The actuasl infection numbers atre it probably 10, 100, or even 1,000 times what's reported, simply because reporting it for any'ol Joe is so difficult. But no matter, that only makes it so instead of reaching 10% of the population by April 9th it'd reach it by the end of March. Exponential curves don't care much for tiny factors like 100x.

"@Astrohippus23":/images/2295017#comment_8861852
Its death and serious case rate is way higher than the flu.

"@Ice Blaze":/images/2295017#comment_8861905
Unlike lightning, though, this has a little thing called "exponential growth", and its doubling time is ludicrously short, at around just 4 days or less. It's been in exponential growth since it started and the only thing that has slowed it down anywhere has been China going under strict lockdown.

It's as infectious as the common cold but ten to a hundred times as lethal, and the best part is it spreads for days of a patient not showing any symptoms, for many its symptoms can be mistaken for a common cold, and for some there are no symptoms at all, making it, unlike other past epidemics the media has hyped, a pandemic that is practically impossible to contain.

This flippant attitude is what caused this to be a serious pandemic. With >1% fatality rate, and spreading as virulantly as it does, it'll probably kill over a million in the US alone, possibly more as cases overwhelm medical infrastructure as they've done in every other country.



But to help you understand this, let's pretend you're #10,000. Just a number. And let you watch what an exponential growth looks like:

1,2,4,8,16,32
"Hah, it's not even a hundred, nevermind a thousand, pathetic!"
64,128,256,512
[=="B-but it's not-"==]
1024,2048,4096
[=="Well I'm still safe at-"==]
8192,16384,32768,65536,131072
"But muh flu"
262144,524288,1048576,2097152

I realized this might be serious when China built a huge hospital complex in under a week. I realized it was serious when it spread to many western countries. Since then I've been watching the cases and curve-fitting them to a simple exponential growth model and I've had over a 90% correlation and been highly successful at predicting the daily cases using this simple exponential model.

Also, the cases wouldn't be growing like this if it were only the reported numbers. Go figure it's hard to catch everyone who has it when it blends in with the common cold. The case rate it probably 10, 100, or even 1,000 times what's reported. But no matter, that only makes it so instead of reaching 10% of the population by April 9th it'd reach it by the end of March. Exponential curves don't care much for tiny factors like 100x.

"@Astrohippus23":/images/2295017#comment_8861852
Its death and serious case rate is way higher than the flu.

"@Ice Blaze":/images/2295017#comment_8861905
Unlike lightning, though, this has a little thing called "exponential growth", and its doubling time is ludicrously short, at around just 4 days or less. It's been in exponential growth since it started and the only thing that has slowed it down anywhere has been China going under strict lockdown.

It's as infectious as the common cold but ten to a hundred times as lethal, and the best part is it spreads for days of a patient not showing any symptoms, for many its symptoms can be mistaken for a common cold, and for some there are no symptoms at all, making it, unlike other past epidemics the media has hyped, a pandemic that is practically impossible to contain.

This flippant attitude is what caused this to be a serious pandemic. With >1% fatality rate, and spreading as virulantly as it does, it'll probably kill over a million in the US alone, possibly more as cases overwhelm medical infrastructure as they've done in every other country.



But to help you understand this, let's pretend you're #10,000. Just a number. And let you watch what an exponential growth looks like:

1,2,4,8,16,32
"Hah, it's not even a hundred, nevermind a thousand, pathetic!"
64,128,256,512
"B-but it's not-"
1024,2048,4096
"Well I'm still safe at-"
8192,16384,32768,65536,131072
"But muh flu"
262144,524288,1048576,2097152

I realized this might be serious when China built a huge hospital complex in under a week. I realized it was serious when it spread to many western countries. Since then I've been watching the cases and curve-fitting them to a simple exponential growth model and I've had over a 90% correlation and been highly successful at predicting the daily cases using this simple exponential model.

Also, the cases wouldn't be growing like this if it were only the reported numbers. Go figure it's hard to catch everyone who has it when it blends in with the common cold. The case rate it probably 10, 100, or even 1,000 times what's reported. But no matter, that only makes it so instead of reaching 10% of the population by April 9th it'd reach it by the end of March. Exponential curves don't care much for tiny factors like 100x.