@The Smiling Pony
Four months of seclusion would fit with Luna’s lack of experience with the modern world. A year and change, not so much.
While episodes in both seasons were aired out of production order, production order still places a fall episode after the winter episode in the first two seasons. Storylines have been somewhere between minimal and nonexistent, so shuffling episodes around without disrupting that is not a problem.
Spike’s birthday is required to part of the first year in Ponyville, meaning that all of the season one had to occur within a single year. Additionally, Luna Eclipsed took place in the fall, judging by what had been harvested, so Spike’s first birthday in Ponyville would have been more than a year after moving there if you go by the seasons shown. The seasons contradict the time that has been said to pass, and I’d go with explicit time passed over calculations passed on seasonal episodes.
@Frostwolf123
From Celestia’s speech, this is the first one that she has ever looked forward to one. It is also the first time that she’s ever mentioned it to Twilight, and given that Twilight helps to set up the Summer Sun Celebrations, not hearing that before would be decidedly odd.
So, yeah, we’re given reason to believe that it is the very next one.
Don’t act like the series hasn’t presented itself as covering a short time span before. The end of the third season outright said that Twilight has been in Ponyville only a short time.