The Virus Outbreak Thread

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Zamasu
5 Charts That Show Sweden’s Strategy Worked. The Lockdowns Failed. [FEE.org]
 
Sweden is one of the few European countries to not have a mask mandate nor a lockdown that caused more damage than covid itself. They voluntarily physically distance. Few of their businesses, if any, have shut down. They have a low covid-related death rate now. (Sure, they had at least 5,000 covid deaths by now, but those were mostly nursing home deaths.)
 
We could learn something from Sweden, because I doubt very seriously that a nationwide lockdown in the USA would work.
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@Goku Black
 
Although I do not wish to contradict you in your statement regarding a national lockdown for the USA, because I personally do not feel able to foresee the effects of such a measure, I must contradict you in your example of Sweden.
 
First of all, it is generally not a good idea to fall back on a source that is already more than a month old. Especially with the rapid developments in the corona virus, this is almost a little careless. An article in the German newspaper “Die Zeit” on Thursday said the following: Sweden was indeed quite proud of its own way in the Corona crisis. Now the numbers of infections and deaths are rising significantly. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has now put the citizens of his country in the mood for difficult times - and is deviating more and more from the previous course.
 
All signs went in an undesirable, wrong direction. There is a danger that the situation will become “totally dark”, Löfven said. “We risk that more people will get sick, more people will die”, that there will be more overworked people in the healthcare system and that more operations will be postponed. It was Wednesday afternoon and even the last Sweden should have realised after his speech that the situation in the Kingdom is very serious.
 
While supporters of the Swedish way thought that they were still confirmed in the summer, the situation has changed dramatically in recent weeks, with the number of infections rising rapidly. On Thursday, the health authorities reported that 4658 new infections and 40 more deaths have been added, bringing the total number of infections and deaths to 171,365 in the country of ten million people. The 14-day incidence is 481 per 100,000 inhabitants. Recently it was announced that the positive rate of corona tests in the Stockholm region had reached 20 percent - in Germany a peak of almost eight percent had recently been achieved.
 
The authorities are increasingly deviating from their special path - even if it is not formulated in this way. But there are more and more and stricter recommendations and restrictions. First, more stringent recommendations were announced for individual regions: people should avoid physical contact with people outside their homes, neither organise nor participate in parties, and the use of public transport is discouraged.
 
Löfven said that the government believes that more measures are needed to contain the spread of the virus. From the 20th November on, there will be a daily ban on alcohol sales throughout the country from 10 pm. This is a sharp cut for the restaurant business. Swedish media quote innkeepers who are at least surprised by this, or even speak of a “catastrophe” or “deathblow” for their industry. Löfven said some people ignored the risk. More and more had begun to relax in the autumn, more and more thought that a day at the shopping centre meant nothing, or that a birthday party made no difference. “But unfortunately, it makes a difference.” Every decision you make in your daily life makes a difference. “Everyone’s behavior is important.”
 
So much for the glorious Swedish way in the Corona crisis.
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Smiling Panzerfuchs 2.0
@Goku Black
 
Well, my post was not about flu, but about proven corona cases in Sweden. As far as the flu is concerned: researchers are trying to get an idea of how the pandemic is likely to behave this winter. For this purpose, they consult laboratory studies and make use of a rapidly growing amount of epidemiological data. But some of the key variables have so far eluded scientific analysis and forecasting.
 
This is because it is difficult to calculate how the measures adopted by policymakers will change, whether the public will follow the guidelines, when a vaccine will be available and how effective and accepted it would be. It is now better understood how low temperatures and humidity affect the virus and how different indoor conditions affect infection. But that is essentially all there is to it.
 
“All the factors that we associate with cold weather seem to potentially accelerate the spread of the virus,” says Richard Neher, a bioinformatician at the University of Basel, who is currently working on simulations that show how the coronavirus spreads in a room. The good news is that this research also reveals what steps any individual or organization could take to slow down the spread of infection under these weather conditions. But whether enough people will follow these measures and whether this will be enough to prevent a huge second wave is anything but certain.
 
Actually, it is untypical for a novel viral respiratory disease to continue in the form of a second wave in winter. In all ten respiratory pandemics of the last 250 years, six months elapsed between the first and second wave, but only three of them occurred in winter. The Spanish flu in 1918 was one of these exceptions. The question I am now asking myself is: Maybe the Corona virus is another exception?
 
There is now a growing fear in Germany that an extension of the current contact restrictions into the Christmas season could damage the acceptance of the corona rules. Chancellor Merkel is concerned about the numbers of intensive care beds needed. If people are not allowed to see their families over the holidays, the acceptance and understanding of the Corona rules could severely be damaged and lead to mass violations.
Zincy
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In Vino Veritas
“Why oh why won’t people stop being shot in the face” says the people in the process of shooting themselves in the face.
Vivace
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@RD4590  
Sadly, I still had the impression that it was a respiratory disease. Haven’t really been in this thread, and most COVID talk I see revolves around the mortality of the disease than the effects felt by survivors. The more I know…
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@Vivace  
It displays as a respiratory disease. We in China still call it “nCoV pneumonia”, but that doesn’t mean it won’t affect other parts of your body. The symptons could be chronic and subtle, and the impact could come much later. I believe the main reasons why the flu & pneumonia symptons are so noticeable is that respiratory system is the first one to be infected and therefore the most severely damaged.
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“I think the hardest thing to watch is that people are still looking for something else,” she told CNN Monday. “People want it to be influenza, they want it to be pneumonia. I mean, we’ve even had people say, ‘well, I think it might be lung cancer.’”
Many of her patients decline to call their family members because they think they’re going to be fine, she said.
“Their last dying words are, ‘This can’t be happening. It’s not real.’ And when they should be spending time Facetiming their families, they’re filled with anger and hatred,”
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