Don't blame me, I voted for the other guy. (Politics General)

More polls like it will need to come back, but IF Harris is indeed closing the trust gap over the economy OR immigration, then Trump is well and truly cooked at the ballot box, and would need his handpicked judges and election officials to install him (assuming they keep their nerve to try).

@BlitztheDragon
Not if the sitting president denies them through an official act.

At which point Dark Brandon will have achieved his final form: Advanced Dark Brandon.

If Kamala manages to maintain the leads she has now into September, especially once early voting starts in places like VA and Pennsylvania, then she’s got it in the bag.

If she manages to further grow her lead before then, and we start seeing 5+ point leads in the swing states consistently, we’d likely be looking at a Wave.

@BlitztheDragon
If Trump is deciding to go back to posting on Twitter, does that mean we can label Truth Social as yet another one of his failed businesses?

@Zincy
THE BLUE WAVE!!! Something that scares Republicans.

@Background Pony #1F81
It’s already a failed business. Trump Media (the company Truth Social depends of) is operating at a loss and its stock price is tanking, while Trump and his investors and co-shareholders have been suing each other for stock mishandling and extortion attempts.

If I had to wager what November will look like, on the current trajectory, it’ll most like fall between 2020 and 2022 levels.

I think that Harris, with her current numbers, fundraising, and general “vibe” will be able to pull bigger margins than Biden did in 2020, closer to Dem margins in the 2022 midterms.

In this scenario, she’d likely win all the same states as Biden did in 2020, just a little more comfortably. Dems would most likely take the House, though it would be a fairly slim majority.

The senate would be a touch more complex, but if Kamala holds steady on her current path, I’d see the dems holding the senate by a single seat, losing WVa and not picking up any seats.

If we see a 5+ scenario, that’s when things get spicy.

That puts places like North Carolina in play, and maybe Texas and Florida if the margins are high enough. Which could also put the senate seats up for grabs.

Bumps from the convention, debates, and any good economic news will tell is more.

I’m bumping my prediction from last time up to 70-75ish% chance of Harris winning.

@Zincy
i’ll also point out that not only will harris will likely get various bumps through the next few months, but it’s likely that the trump-vance ticket will get more hits going by their current trajectory.

@Zincy
Wouldn’t that be assuming the election officials aren’t compromised and refuse to certify the results, I.e. Georgia, iirc?

They’re limited in what they can do without a friendly federal administration to back them up.

Putin is now condemning all the world leaders who isn’t denouncing Ukraine’s counter invasion.

Sucks to suck, huh?

@Dustcan
He thinks the world is Civ 6 and we side against the player for counterattacking an AI’s surprise war.

There are now two pictures of JD Vance in Drag. Well that is something.

@igotnopicks
Now there’s blood in the water.

@igotnopicks
I love Vance’s use of eye liner. Very emo. Very committed to the look. But he needs to do something about his wigs - they’re not doing his face any favors.

So Trump has returned to Xitter. He was to kick it off with an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces.

Hilariously, they couldn’t get the Spaces to work correctly and are having to redirect people to a mirror on YouTube.

@BlitztheDragon
Oh no Elon is trying really hard to break the site e bought.

UPDATE: Allegedly a YouTube link being shared around for the interview was actually to a crypto scam video.

@BlitztheDragon
oh man. That’s hilarious.

Right Wing Infighting is a lovely sight to me:

That tweet is from 2022, when he was backing DeSantis over Trump. How delicious it is to see him pivoting to sucking up to the Donald after Ronnie crashed and burned.

@igotnopicks
His stage name should be “Ashley Furniture.”

He also tried interviewing DeSantis over Twitter.

DeSantis’ campaign crashed and burned.

He then endorsed Vivek and I believe interviewed him over Twitter.

Vivek’s campaign crashed and burned.

And now we have the chance to see the hat trick.

@Dustcan
I mean The Campaign is already on it’s 3rd week of still losing.

I want to know who is in charge of the Trump campaign and why is it still on fire since announcing the VP pick.