Don't blame me, I voted for the other guy. (Politics General)

Derpy Whooves
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Looking For My Doctor
@phoenixacezero  
In the U.S.? Lots.
 
Democrat Farm Labor party, (which caucuses with the national Democratic party, the Green Party, the Constitution Party, Socialist Workers Party, the Libertarian party, Alliance Party, the “Birthday Party” (Kanye West), the Solidarity Party, the Party For Socialism And Liberation - all of those had separate candidates for the 20202 nomination.
 
In 2016 there were even more, like the Better For America party, and the Liberty Union and the Peace and Freedom parties, the American Delta party, the Legal Marijuana Now party, Veterans Party, etc, etc, etc.
 
Hell, there’s even a Nutrition Party and a Conservative Party party.
 
Most of these caucus with either the Republicans or the Democrats if they win at the federal level, otherwise they won’t even get an office or access to a photocopier in the US’s 2-party system. Basically, when you hit the federal level you’re one or the other because only those two parties get to seat people on committees or assign offices, staffers, or offices and other resources.
 
I mean, sure, vote for who you want to, but it doesn’t help if they aren’t one or the other when they get to office, because unless they pick a side (like Bernie did) they won’t even get an … office. Literally.
 
So, sure - at the federal level in the United States, it all boils down to one or the other version of American Conservatism. So basically the US only has one party. With just lots of different angry factions within it.
 
full
Derpy Whooves
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Looking For My Doctor
@Derpy Whooves  
I mean, yeah, clearly Elizabeth Warren and Mitch McConnell are members of entirely different parties, so it’s not like it’s a monolithic chuck of ‘these people all believe the same things’. But at the federal level both the US Democratic and Republican parties are well to the right of what the rest of the world considers ‘middle of the road’.
Background Pony #1324
So many naïve people who think Trump will just run off with his tail between his legs if he loses. He could just declare himself the winner because the election was rigged, or he could just run again in 2024.
Dustcan
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Dogs
@Background Human
 
Still, I wonder the odds of Trump making to the end of the debate is. He pussied out of the second debate because he was afraid doing it digitally would make it easy to mute him. So the third debate announcing ahead of the time “Yeah we are cutting mics” as a policy means there’s a chance he either pussies out of this one too, or he straight up walks off stage when he does get his cut.
 
 
@phoenixacezero
 
Before?
Zincy
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In Vino Veritas
More people have voted early in Texas (4.7 million) than total votes for Trump (4.68) in 2016. Assuming turnout stays consistent, it’ll likely lead to the highest voter turnout in Texas history.
 
Texas doesn’t record party data, so there is no way to know (outside of a few exit polls) what affiliation most of those voters are. But, the current national trend for early votes show that 53ish % of them are dem votes.
Dustcan
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Dogs
Trump (both the man himself and his campaign) is so broke that the reason he’s ramped up his rallies is because they’re cheaper than ad buying.
 
Also worth noting is a twofer: the tax payer is technically funding these alternative campaign methods since they’re the ones footing the bill for his travel expenses. Also Trump isn’t paying back his debts (sound familiar?) to the cities hosting his rallies, so the tax payers of those cities are getting double screwed by this welfare queen.
Background Pony #11A9
Trump ragequit an interview with 60 minutes, left Pence hanging for a segment they were supposed to do together, and then immediately went on twitter to whine about the lifelong respected journalist interviewing him.
 
Also Melania still has covid, but no one cares about her.
Background Pony #1324
Biden is leading in Texas.
 
The best case scenario would be Biden winning OH, PA, WI, MI, TX, FL, and AZ.
Zincy
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In Vino Veritas
@Background Pony #1324
 
I wouldn’t say leading per se, but they are both in a statistical tie within most polls margins of error.
 
Which is, a very unenviable place for a republican to be, let alone an incumbent.
phoenixacezero
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@Vivace  
Most likely in response to what happened - 50 cent voting for Trump because he saw Joe’s tax plan, meanwhile Ice Cube’s situation is due to him going to Trump and collaborating to create the Platinum Plan and this after he went to Joe Biden.
HeadlessHorselessHorseman

@Derpy Whooves
I mean, yeah, clearly Elizabeth Warren and Mitch McConnell are members of entirely different parties, so it’s not like it’s a monolithic chuck of ‘these people all believe the same things’. But at the federal level both the US Democratic and Republican parties are well to the right of what the rest of the world considers ‘middle of the road’.
 
That really depends on how you define “middle of the road.” I spend a lot of time viewing a center-left forum, and very few of the users there believe that the Democrats are actually right-wing (even though, admittedly, half of them were pushing that meme in the pre-Trump era). Depending on which politician you’re talking about, Democrats may be far to the left of Europe on something like LGBT rights; I’ve heard it said that the UK actually has more TERFs than the United States.
 
The Democrats may average out to centrist overall, but that’s only because they’ve become a big tent. If you mean “centrist” in terms of economics, literal socialism and classless societies aren’t on the radar for most countries at this point in time; America isn’t an outlier in that regard. For better or worse, a candidate like Joe Biden is actually what most Americans want at this point in comparison to Trump. Democrats are supported by about 60% of the entire country; a narrower majority than the party wants to admit, but a majority nonetheless.
Zincy
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In Vino Veritas
A note on polling error.
 
Polling error is not uni-directional, nor inherently consistent.
 
I was watching a 538 podcast about this very thing. There is an assumption that the error will break for Trump again like it did in 2016. It should be noted, however, that a sample size of one is no sample at all.
 
Historically, polling error has not favored one or the other party, but has favored both at varying times. They’ve also not always been consistent. There have been elections in the past where polling error varied from state to state.
 
So there is no guarantee that any polling error, should it be relevant, would break toward Trump just because it broke for him in 2016. 538 pointed out that some polling houses may be afraid to be caught with their pants down, and may have favored publishing their models that were more favorable to Trump/less favorable to a Biden blow out. Hypothetically, if this were the case, then any inherent error in those polls would be more likely to break for Biden.
 
Again, that’s just one possibility. The error could break for Trump again, or it could be negligible and break for no one. Error is, inherently, unpredictable. If you could predict error, you wouldn’t have error.
 
 
Just the musings of a statistician.
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