Don't blame me, I voted for the other guy. (Politics General)
Background Pony #1F81
Is it safe to say that the chances of a Bernie presidency are basically down the drain now?
Zincy 
In Vino Veritas
@Background Pony #9B61
From a purely statistical standpoint, yes.
Looking at past voting history, estimated turnout, polling, and exit polls from each state, the math just isn’t there from Sanders to come back from this.
He’d not only have to win majorities in each state, but he’d have to carry a majority of the districts in them. A highly unlikely feat given the states that remain.
From a purely statistical standpoint, yes.
Looking at past voting history, estimated turnout, polling, and exit polls from each state, the math just isn’t there from Sanders to come back from this.
He’d not only have to win majorities in each state, but he’d have to carry a majority of the districts in them. A highly unlikely feat given the states that remain.
Dustcan 
Dogs
@Background Pony #9B61
Statistically speaking, Biden hasn’t won 51% of the total delegates yet.
In practical terms, well, 538 put his chances at 100-1. Barring some ever shrinking miracle Biden has all but synced the nomination. Sinked? Cinqued? One of those.
Edit: More or less ninja’d
Statistically speaking, Biden hasn’t won 51% of the total delegates yet.
In practical terms, well, 538 put his chances at 100-1. Barring some ever shrinking miracle Biden has all but synced the nomination. Sinked? Cinqued? One of those.
Edit: More or less ninja’d
Zincy
In Vino Veritas
@Random-Rambling
You know, people were saying the same thing about Clinton walking all over Trump.
And, well, look how that went.
You know, people were saying the same thing about Clinton walking all over Trump.
And, well, look how that went.
Random-Rambling 
True, true. Very well, I will hold my further predictions, because stranger things have happened.
tinyurl.com/dymbb3a
@Random-Rambling
given the spanner in the works this year, I’d hold off on predictions.
You know, people were saying the same thing about Clinton walking all over Trump.And, well, look how that went.
True, true. Very well, I will hold my further predictions, because stranger things have happened.
Violet Rose in The Rain
The fact that the American people are rejecting the “free healthcare” candidate in the middle of a global pandemic is something I’m finding hard to comprehend right now.
History tells me that you lot are greedy as a whole but this just veers into stupidity.
History tells me that you lot are greedy as a whole but this just veers into stupidity.
Princess Applejack
@Random-Rambling
I fail to see how Trump can beat Biden. Trump has been impeached, downplayed the Corona Virus. Lied about the readiness of the vaccines. And his Trump card the Economy is in a state of tittering over the edge into rescission. Trump is proving time and time again why we need a politician in office not a dirty business man.
I fail to see how Trump can beat Biden. Trump has been impeached, downplayed the Corona Virus. Lied about the readiness of the vaccines. And his Trump card the Economy is in a state of tittering over the edge into rescission. Trump is proving time and time again why we need a politician in office not a dirty business man.
Zincy
In Vino Veritas
@Apple Thor
I think people are also discounting the large margins that Biden is winning by, even (or especially) in states with open primaries like SC, VA, TX, and IL. He’s managing to form a working plurality, and outperforming what Clinton did in 2016 by upwards to 20-30%.
Biden may be a doddering old man, but honestly he seems to have something going right for him.
Also Biden, to his credit, is actually trying to reach out to Sanders voters. As opposed to how Clinton treated them with vaguely contained contempt.
I think people are also discounting the large margins that Biden is winning by, even (or especially) in states with open primaries like SC, VA, TX, and IL. He’s managing to form a working plurality, and outperforming what Clinton did in 2016 by upwards to 20-30%.
Biden may be a doddering old man, but honestly he seems to have something going right for him.
Also Biden, to his credit, is actually trying to reach out to Sanders voters. As opposed to how Clinton treated them with vaguely contained contempt.
The Smiling Pony 
( ͠° ͟ʖ ͡° )
Biden may be a doddering old man, but honestly he seems to have something going right for him.
That something is that he’s a doddering old man. Doesn’t want change, just go back to Obama times.
Background Pony #006D
@Apple Thor
then you are blind. The impeachment was pretty partisan and his approval numbers went up during it and the coronavirus was not his fault and you’d be surprised by the amount of people who aren’t bothered by his response to it, so the drop in the economy isn’t seen as his fault either. Combine that with him running against an old man who appears to be slipping into senility and he has a path to reelection.
then you are blind. The impeachment was pretty partisan and his approval numbers went up during it and the coronavirus was not his fault and you’d be surprised by the amount of people who aren’t bothered by his response to it, so the drop in the economy isn’t seen as his fault either. Combine that with him running against an old man who appears to be slipping into senility and he has a path to reelection.
Zincy
Lastly, you do not want to get into a debate about mental health. Trumps constant self-controdiction, denial of things he said/did despite there being recordings and tweets of it, and pathological lying are indicative of several mental failings. Biden’s random gaffes are nothing compared to literally denying something you did when presented with the literal, actual words you said.
In Vino Veritas
@Background Pony #7F87
His approval rating never breached 50%, and has already slipped to an average of 42-43%.
Meanwhile, his overall disapproval rating average didn’t budge. Staying in the low to mid 50s. Because more people who where neutral on Trump shifted to “disapprove” than “approve”.
As for corona, you’re also wrong about that. A majority of people polled say they disapprove of the federal governments handling of the crisis. And a majority say they do not trust what Trump says about it.
And Trump has tied his whole image to the strength of the stock market, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that his approval slips during times when the economy is weakening. It slipped to its lowest ever during the economic slowdown caused by the government shutdown.
His approval rating never breached 50%, and has already slipped to an average of 42-43%.
Meanwhile, his overall disapproval rating average didn’t budge. Staying in the low to mid 50s. Because more people who where neutral on Trump shifted to “disapprove” than “approve”.
As for corona, you’re also wrong about that. A majority of people polled say they disapprove of the federal governments handling of the crisis. And a majority say they do not trust what Trump says about it.
And Trump has tied his whole image to the strength of the stock market, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that his approval slips during times when the economy is weakening. It slipped to its lowest ever during the economic slowdown caused by the government shutdown.
Lastly, you do not want to get into a debate about mental health. Trumps constant self-controdiction, denial of things he said/did despite there being recordings and tweets of it, and pathological lying are indicative of several mental failings. Biden’s random gaffes are nothing compared to literally denying something you did when presented with the literal, actual words you said.
Zincy
In Vino Veritas
The federal government has failed us.
Testing was so botched that this was allowed to get dangerous.
Our hospitals face an overwhelming surge with almost no support. No military assets mobilized, no supply’s procured, no field hospitals, no ventilators, no masks.
No plan.
Testing was so botched that this was allowed to get dangerous.
Our hospitals face an overwhelming surge with almost no support. No military assets mobilized, no supply’s procured, no field hospitals, no ventilators, no masks.
No plan.
Background Pony #006D
@Zincy
his polls were in the toilet when he ran against Hillary, his approval ratinga were higher then they were shortly after reelection.
On Coronavirus, people saying they diaapprove on how the federal government doea not mean Trump is being blamed and people want Biden inatead, don’t make the mistake of confusing the two. For example the big mistake on testing wasn’t the fault of Trump, and eveeyone i’ve talked to, even the ones who hate Trump, agree. Additionally, thinking Trump handled it poorly doean’t mean you are jumping at the chance to elect Biden instead. If Trump can pin the market turndown on the virus, and distance himself, he can have a good chance.
Biden’s slips are a different animal then Trump’s. The left has tried to push him being mentally unstable but it hasn’t stuck, the idea that Biden’s faculties are slipping is actually picking up steam, this might be because Trump might be seen as mean, but his debates and rallies aren’t as poor in that case as Biden.
Claiming you just can’t see how Trump can beat Biden is being willfully blind. You are setting yourself up for another 2016.
his polls were in the toilet when he ran against Hillary, his approval ratinga were higher then they were shortly after reelection.
On Coronavirus, people saying they diaapprove on how the federal government doea not mean Trump is being blamed and people want Biden inatead, don’t make the mistake of confusing the two. For example the big mistake on testing wasn’t the fault of Trump, and eveeyone i’ve talked to, even the ones who hate Trump, agree. Additionally, thinking Trump handled it poorly doean’t mean you are jumping at the chance to elect Biden instead. If Trump can pin the market turndown on the virus, and distance himself, he can have a good chance.
Biden’s slips are a different animal then Trump’s. The left has tried to push him being mentally unstable but it hasn’t stuck, the idea that Biden’s faculties are slipping is actually picking up steam, this might be because Trump might be seen as mean, but his debates and rallies aren’t as poor in that case as Biden.
Claiming you just can’t see how Trump can beat Biden is being willfully blind. You are setting yourself up for another 2016.
Zincy
In Vino Veritas
@Background Pony #7F87
Are you a non-native speaker or do you just have the typing ability of a 5 year old?
At any rate, the polling numbers weren’t as bad for Trump as they appeared in 2016, and the benefit of hindsight has shown us that.
But those polls are a different beast to presidential approval polls. Trump is not immune to the laws of political gravity.
Trump is the head of the federal government, and the President has always been the great lightning rod for its failings. Trump does not get a magically button that allows him to suddenly be the first pres to bypass this fact. He is not special.
Are you a non-native speaker or do you just have the typing ability of a 5 year old?
At any rate, the polling numbers weren’t as bad for Trump as they appeared in 2016, and the benefit of hindsight has shown us that.
But those polls are a different beast to presidential approval polls. Trump is not immune to the laws of political gravity.
Trump is the head of the federal government, and the President has always been the great lightning rod for its failings. Trump does not get a magically button that allows him to suddenly be the first pres to bypass this fact. He is not special.
Background Pony #006D
@Zincy
Really? Personal attacks already? Stop acting like a child.
Trump may not win this election, it is totally up in the air, but anyone who looks at this situation right now and writes him off has forgotten the lessons of 2016. A lot rides on how this coronavirus pans out, how the public views it, and whether they think Biden or Trump is the better man in the future.
Really? Personal attacks already? Stop acting like a child.
Trump may not win this election, it is totally up in the air, but anyone who looks at this situation right now and writes him off has forgotten the lessons of 2016. A lot rides on how this coronavirus pans out, how the public views it, and whether they think Biden or Trump is the better man in the future.
Zincy
In Vino Veritas
@Background Pony #7F87
An observation is not an attack. If you are going to engage in an adult discussion, you should proof read your statements. Otherwise, with that many consistent errors, you look like a fool. It is distracting at best, and a sign of incompetence at worst. Typos happen, but do try and reread through your posts before hitting send.
I never said it was a done deal. But the historical headwinds are not in Trump’s favor.
Like I said, he is not immune to political gravity. The basic principles of an election year do not suddenly stop working just because it’s Trump.
Abysmal polling, low approval rating, a flagging economy, and a botched crisis response are campaign killers on their own. Add all of them together, and the model becomes untenable.
An observation is not an attack. If you are going to engage in an adult discussion, you should proof read your statements. Otherwise, with that many consistent errors, you look like a fool. It is distracting at best, and a sign of incompetence at worst. Typos happen, but do try and reread through your posts before hitting send.
I never said it was a done deal. But the historical headwinds are not in Trump’s favor.
Like I said, he is not immune to political gravity. The basic principles of an election year do not suddenly stop working just because it’s Trump.
Abysmal polling, low approval rating, a flagging economy, and a botched crisis response are campaign killers on their own. Add all of them together, and the model becomes untenable.
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